Tesla has published its latest company-compiled analyst consensus, and after a softer-than-expected first quarter, Wall Street is anticipating a significant rebound in deliveries during Q2 2026.
According to the figures released on Tesla’s Investor Relations website on Friday, analysts expect the company to deliver 406,024 vehicles in Q2 2026, representing an increase of nearly 13.4% quarter-over-quarter from the 358,023 vehicles Tesla delivered in Q1 2026.
The consensus expects 392,625 deliveries to come from the Model 3 and Model Y, while the remaining 12,978 vehicles are expected to come from the company’s other products. This will include the Cybertruck and for the last time the Model S and Model X, both of which were discounted during the quarter.
| Category | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model 3/Y Deliveries | 341,893 | 392,625 | +14.8% |
| All Other Models | 16,130 | 12,978 | -19.5% |
| Total Deliveries | 358,023 | 406,024 | +13.4% |
While the average estimate sits at just over 406,000 units, the median forecast is even higher at 408,609 deliveries, and the relatively low standard deviation of 14,922 vehicles suggests analysts are more closely aligned on expectations than they were heading into Q1.
Tesla notes that the figures are based on estimates from 22 firms, including RBC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wedbush, Barclays, JPMorgan, UBS, and Wells Fargo.
Tesla’s Energy business is also expected to recover following an unusually weak first quarter that saw deployments fall to 8.8 GWh, well below the record levels achieved in late 2025. Analysts expect Tesla to deploy 13.8 GWh of energy storage in Q2, nearly matching the 14.2 GWh deployed in Q4 2025.
| Metric | Q4 2025 Actual | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2026 Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Deliveries | 418,227 | 358,023 | 406,024 |
| Energy Storage (GWh) | 14.2 | 8.8 | 13.8 |
This is now the third consecutive quarter that Tesla has publicly shared its company-compiled consensus estimates, continuing a transparency initiative that began in late 2025. Previously, this information circulated primarily among institutional investors and analysts, leaving retail investors dependent on scattered reports and individual estimates.
By publishing the same baseline expectations for everyone to see, Tesla is giving investors a clearer picture not only of what Wall Street expects, but also how much agreement exists behind those forecasts.
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