Tesla is expected to announce its third-quarter 2026 vehicle delivery results on October 2, with Wall Street analysts projecting a year-over-year decline.
UBS estimates Tesla will deliver approximately 470,000 vehicles during the quarter, representing a decline of about 5% compared with the same period last year. The investment firm maintained its $385 price target for Tesla stock while also forecasting strong growth in Tesla’s energy business, with deployments expected to reach roughly 16.9 GWh during Q3.
Other analyst estimates are more conservative. The Visible Alpha consensus currently places Tesla’s quarterly deliveries at around 454,000 vehicles, while Goldman Sachs is forecasting approximately 435,000 deliveries.
The expected range would mark a decrease from Tesla’s recent delivery figures. The company reported 497,099 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025, while Q2 2026 deliveries reached 480,126 units.
Tesla has not yet released its own internal delivery consensus, but the company typically publishes a compiled analyst estimate ahead of its quarterly results. That figure is expected to arrive within the next week before Tesla releases official numbers.
Tesla does not provide regional delivery figures in its quarterly reports, so Canadian sales will not be broken out separately. However, sales north of the border have been gaining momentum in 2026, helped by the launch of the EVAP rebate program and Tesla’s introduction of a sub-$40,000 Model 3 from Giga Shanghai under Canada’s new EV import quota system.
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