This is why we think the SR Model Y will soon be $5,000 cheaper in Canada [Update]

Tesla made a surprise announcement earlier this month by adding a Standard Range (SR) Model Y to its lineup, after CEO Elon Musk said the company would no longer make one.

Soon after, both British Columbia and Quebec added it to their lists of vehicles eligible for their provincial rebates. While the Yukon doesn’t maintain a list of their qualifying vehicles, it should also qualify there.

Unfortunately based on the current rules of the iZEV rebate program, the SR Model Y doesn’t qualify for the federal $5,000 rebate. But we think that will soon change based on a hint from Tesla’s pricing structure.

What does it take to qualify for the iZEV rebate?

According to Transport Canada, to qualify for the rebate you must purchase or lease:

  • a vehicle with six seats or fewer, where the base model (trim) Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) is less than $45,000;
    • higher priced versions (trims) of these vehicles, up to a maximum Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) of $55,000, will also be eligible for purchase incentives;

The current MSRP of the SR Model Y is $54,900 ($56,290 minus fees).

What Tesla needs to do to make it qualify

To qualify Tesla would need to introduce a software locked Model Y and price it under $45,000. By doing so the “higher priced versions” up to $55,000 will also qualify. This isn’t unheard of as they did this exact thing by adding a 150km off-menu Standard Range Model 3 in 2019.

Why we think Tesla will do just that

There are some hints within Tesla’s SR Model Y pricing decision that lead us to believe it is only a matter of time before it adds a software locked version.

SR Model Y price Canada

Hint #1. Tesla priced the SR Model Y in Canada at $56,290. When you take out the $1,280 destination and documentation fee, $100 air conditioning fee and $10 OMVIC fee, the MSRP is $54,900, just $100 below the upper limit of the program rules.

Hint #2. If they had followed their pricing convention and put it at $56,990, the MSRP would have been $55,600 and over the limit. Its current price is the lowest it could be to get it under the $55,000 limit. Even $100 more would have been too much.

Hint #3. It is the only vehicle in Tesla’s lineup where the price doesn’t end in $990.

The next question is why haven’t they done this already? The most likely answer is Tesla is still waiting on approvals from Transport Canada. With a simultaneous announcement of the SR Model Y in Canada and the US, they likely weren’t going to push it back because of a slow-moving Canadian government body.

Of course this is all speculation and the SR Model Y may never qualify for the iZEV rebate, but we think everything is pointing at this coming soon.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.

UPDATE: There have been some questions regarding the 7-seat configuration and how it relates to the iZEV rebate. Based on our interpretation of the rules, the program deals with 6 or fewer seats and 7-seat vehicles separately. As a result, there would need to be a base 7-seat Model Y priced under $55,000. Here is the relevant statement from Transport Canada.

a vehicle with seven seats or greater, where the base model Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) is less than $55,000;

  • higher priced versions (trims) of these vehicles, up to a maximum Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) of $60,000, will also be eligible for purchase incentives;

 

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