Tesla Q4 2023 earnings – what to expect

Tesla had another record year for production and deliveries, exceeding analyst expectations in the final quarter. Tesla is set to publish their financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the full year after markets close later today.

In the final quarter of the year Tesla produced nearly 495,000 vehicles at Fremont, Giga Texas, Giga Berlin, and Giga Shanghai, while delivering 484,507 of those to customers around the world. That resulted in a total of 1.81 million deliveries, representing a 38% year-over-year (YoY) increase and meeting their annual vehicle delivery guidance.

Here is what analysts are expecting Tesla will announce for their Q4 2023 financial results.

Earnings

Wall Street consensus is that Tesla will report earnings of around $0.73 per share. Last year Tesla reported earnings of $1.19 per share.

Revenue

Analysts are predicting a modest 6% YoY growth in revenue to $25.7 million, but anticipate declines across other financial metrics, including a 19% drop in gross profit and a 36% decrease in net income.

Other Announcements

Tesla always includes a number of other announcements and updates in their shareholder deck and during the subsequent earnings call. For today we may hear more about some of the recent price cuts, the Cybertruck production ramp, Full Self-Driving (FSD) after the release of V12, news on Giga Mexico and potentially an update on Giga Berlin’s two week shutdown planned for later this month and into February.

Investor and Institutional Questions

Here are the top 7 questions from retail and institutional investors that will be asked during today’s call.

  • Given that you moved the start of the next generation compact vehicle production to Austin, has the timeline improved so that we might see next generation platform vehicles in 2025?
  • What has been the barrier to ramping 4680 cells into the multi million cells per week rate and when do you expect to get there?
  • Should retail shareholders be concerned that Elon has stated he is uncomfortable expanding AI and robotics at Tesla if he doesn’t have 25% of voting ?
  • What is your expectation for automotive gross margins (excluding regulatory credits) for the full year?
  • Does the company anticipate a 50% volume CAGR to be realized in either of 2024 or 2025? If not, why not?
  • When will Tesla start construction on the Giga Nevada expansion and Giga Mexico, and when can we expect each of these to produce their first products such as 4680, Semi, and next gen vehicles?
  • Has there been any progress made with an FSD licensing agreement with another company?
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