Tesla expects to deliver 1.8 million cars in 2023, with a chance at 2 million [Update]

Tesla grew vehicles sales by 40% in 2022, despite a very challenging market paired with supply chain shortages that saw most other automakers post double digit declines in their sales. Even though they were able to increase sales while others saw theirs drop precipitously, Tesla’s 1.3 million deliveries was still seen as a miss by analysts because it was off their annual guidance of 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), a figure Tesla first started using in early 2021.

Despite ongoing headwinds, Tesla is sticking with their 50% CAGR but providing a bit more colour to it, saying in their Q4 2022 report that “in some years we may grow faster and some we may grow slower, depending on a number of factors.”

With that in mind, Tesla says they expect to deliver around 1.8 million cars in 2023, representing a growth rate of about 40% compared to 2022. However, Tesla says this number will still keep them ahead of their long-term goal of 50% CAGR.

UPDATE 4:15pm PT: During the live earnings call, Musk said there is a chance Tesla could reach 2 million deliveries in 2023.

That 500,000 difference is going to mainly come from increased production at Giga Texas, and Giga Berlin. Both factories opened in early 2022 and have been ramping production through the year. As of the most recent update from Tesla last month, Giga Texas was producing 3,000 Model Ys per week, indicating an annual rate of 156,000. With continued production growth in 2023, and the addition of the Cybertruck to the factory’s production lines, that number should approach 500,000 by the end of the year.

The production ramp has been a little slower at Giga Berlin, but crews in Germany have been closing the gap. In December they also reached the milestone of 3,000 Model Ys built in a single week, and with the addition of a third shift that number should reach 5,000 per week in the next few months.

Tesla remains on track to begin Cybertruck production “later this year”

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