Tesla analysts slash delivery forecasts for Q2

Leading Tesla analysts are cutting their EV delivery forecasts for Tesla that should come out in the next few days.

According to Forbes, analysts note that COVID-19 shutdowns at Giga Shanghai and start-up pains at Giga Texas and Giga Berlin are the main culprits for their lower estimates.

The average prediction notes that Tesla will deliver around 258,000 EVs this quarter.

Here are some of the top predictions:

  • Vijay Rakesh- Mizuho Securities- 232,000 vehicles
  • Emmanuel Rosner- Deutsche Bank- 245,000 vehicles
  • Dan Ives- Wedbush Securities– 277,000 vehicles
  • Adam Jonas- Morgan Stanley- 270,000 vehicles

If the 258,000 number is accurate, that would be up an impressive 28 per cent year-over-year but down 17 per cent from a record-breaking Q1 of 310,048 deliveries.

The estimates at the start of Q2 before Giga Shanghai shut down for three weeks were 315,000. That is 18 per cent higher than it appears the actual delivery numbers will be.

Whether Tesla will be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat will largely depend on Fremont’s output over the last three months, which according to analyst Trip Chowdhry has been running above capacity. Backing up that claim was Elon Musk congratulating the team for a single day production record earlier this month.

Nelson Garrett, an equity analyst for CFRA, had this to say:

Covid impacts on its Shanghai plant and the fact its new Austin and Berlin plants are still running at fairly low capacity utilization rates. So the key question is the magnitude of the decline and whether the Fremont factory was able to help support volumes.

Although Elon Musk was upbeat about Q2, neither Tesla nor Musk provided updated guidance for the quarter.

At least to say, it will be interesting to see the actual number and what Tesla has planned to help recover in Q3 and Q4.

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