Musk Projects Up to $1 Trillion in SpaceX ARR by 2027

Elon Musk has laid out an ambitious revenue projection for SpaceX, saying on the company’s third-quarter earnings call that it could reach between $500 billion (C$702.7 billion) and $1 trillion (C$1.41 trillion) in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of 2027.

The projection came during the Q3 webcast on Tuesday, where executives also outlined plans for a large increase in spending and revenue over the coming quarters. Musk’s figure is his own projection, however, and not part of the company’s official financial guidance.

The comments follow SpaceX’s latest earnings report, which showed third-quarter revenue jumping 161% to $14.6 billion. The company also reported $4.4 billion in net income, driven by its growing satellite, launch and artificial intelligence businesses.

SpaceX has been investing heavily in its Starship program and AI computing infrastructure, with those projects accounting for a significant portion of its recent spending.

Wrapping up his prepared remarks on the call, Musk suggested those investments could translate into enormous revenue growth:

“I mean, in a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027 is somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion.”

CFO Bret Johnsen offered a nearer-term outlook on the call, saying SpaceX remains on track for its target of $100 billion (C$140.5 billion) in ARR by the end of 2026. He said that figure is “defined as annualized revenue based on the month of December,” rather than revenue actually earned throughout the year.

Johnsen said SpaceX expects first-quarter 2027 revenue between $33 billion (C$46.4 billion) and $37 billion (C$52.0 billion).

The company is also preparing to spend considerably more. Johnsen guided fourth-quarter capital expenditures to $35 billion (C$49.2 billion) to $40 billion (C$56.2 billion), compared to $19.6 billion (C$27.5 billion) in Q3.

According to Johnsen, SpaceX ended September with a $63 billion (C$88.5 billion) backlog, including approximately $42 billion (C$59.0 billion) expected to be recognized as revenue within the next year.

The call also touched on a possible combination with Tesla, with Musk saying both companies have formed special committees to evaluate a possible merger.

Whether SpaceX can reach Musk’s much larger 2027 projection will depend on how quickly its AI computing operations and other businesses can scale.

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