Will Tesla reach its delivery target for 2020?

Tesla last week surprised many Wall Street analysts by posting delivery numbers far ahead of their estimates. What made the figures particularly noteworthy was the fact its main factory in Fremont, California was shut down for two months during the quarter.

While we don’t yet know the Q2 2020 financial results, which will be on July 22 2020, we now have a good idea if Tesla will be able to reach their delivery guidance for the year.

2020 Delivery Guidance

In its 2019 Q4 update, Tesla reported it’s delivery guidance estimate for 2020, saying that for the full year, “vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units.

In Q1 2020, Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles around the world, a record Q1 for the company in what is typically a slow period for vehicle sales. They followed that up with 90,650 vehicles delivered in Q2, for a total of 179,146 so far in 2020.

Obviously the coronavirus pandemic and two month shutdown of its only vehicle production facility in the US put a dent in their numbers, but the strong effort by Tesla employees at the end of the quarter means that target is still within reach. That’s possible thanks to two main reasons.

Model Y Production Ramp

Tesla Model YTesla introduced the Model Y in March in the US and in June in Canada.

Before Model Y production began, Tesla put their Model 3 production at 350,000 units annually at Fremont. They now estimate with the Model Y production ramp going better than expected, combined 3/Y production should reach 500,000 units by mid-2020, in other words, now.

“We were able to build more Model Y vehicles in the first quarter of production than in the first two quarters of Model 3 in 2017. Model Y production also exceeded the first quarter of production of Model 3 in Shanghai, demonstrating continued improvements in program execution.”

With this level of increasing production, the Model Y will provide a significant boost to delivery numbers for the remainder of the year.

Giga Shanghai

Tesla Giga Shanghai video 3The opening of Giga Shanghai couldn’t have been timed better for Tesla after the shutdown of Fremont earlier this. In its Q1 2020 update letter, Tesla said the factory should be producing 200,000 vehicles by mid-2020.

Due to better than expected progress, we believe Model 3 will achieve a production rate of ~4,000 /week (or ~200k/year extrapolated run rate) by mid-2020.”

With Tesla China posting record sales figures through the first half of 2020, it will undoubtedly continue to sell every vehicle it can produce. This will again provide a solid boost to Tesla’s overall sales for the year.

Q3 and Q4 deliveries

To reach its target of 500,000 vehicles, Tesla will have to deliver 320,854 vehicles, or 160,427 on average for Q3 and Q4.

With the production ramp of Giga Shanghai and the introduction of the Model Y, the goal of 500,000 deliveries in 2020 is within reach. But even if it doesn’t meet the target thanks to the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, it will surely grow from its 2019 total of 367,500 vehicles.

Do you think Tesla will reach its delivery guidance for 2020? Let us know in the comments below.

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