Tesla’s Cybertruck is about to enter production, and could very well be the most highly anticipated vehicle launch in recent memory. However according to one analyst, the buzz and excitement that has been created in the lead up to the Cybertruck’s launch won’t lead to a lot of sales, relegating it to becoming a niche product.
That’s according to John Murphy, the lead analyst for Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, who revealed his stance on the Cybertruck during a recent meeting at the Automotive Press Association in Detroit. Murphy explained that while the Cybertruck may explode out of the gates due the pent up demand from waiting for four years since it was first unveiled, it will become a low volume vehicle after that, “I think it will be a niche vehicle,” Murphy said. (via The Detroit Bureau)
Tesla hasn’t officially announced how many Cybertruck reservations there currently are. The last official update we got from CEO Elon Musk was all the back in 2019 on Twitter, six days after the official unveiling, at which time Tesla had already taken in 250,000 reservations. Bringing out the calculator that works out to an average of over 2,100 reservations per hour, or one reservation every 2 seconds between the unveiling and the tweet.
The number of reservations will naturally be higher right after a product unveiling, but demand for Cybertruck reservations didn’t slow down, with unofficial trackers now putting the total number at over 1.5 million. Critics will say that anyone and everyone was making a reservation because they cost just $150 CAD/$100 USD, and that when the time comes there will be a very high cancellation rate. However, according to a 2023 study 75% of Cybertruck reservation holders plan to buy the vehicle when it becomes available.
But even if a higher percentage than that will cancel their order, it will still take Tesla years to work through the backlog. Recent reports indicate Tesla is aiming to produce a minimum of 375,000 Cybertruck per year at volume production, which it won’t reach until later in 2024, so if 50% cancel, that still leaves Tesla with over 750,000 reservations and likely more than three years of production already accounted for.
This isn’t the first time we have heard this sentiment from an analyst. Earlier this year Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the Cybertruck may end up being an “enthusiast/cult car” with limited production.
Do you think the Cybertruck will become a niche product with limited demand? Will you be following through on your reservation? Let us know in the comments below.
