Tesla could reach production of 20 million vehicles a year within 10 years: Elon Musk

Gigafactory Shanghai

With two new Gigafactories currently under construction, it looks like Tesla may need several more in the next decade after CEO Elon Musk’s comments on Monday.

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Responding to several comments from ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, Musk said he believes Tesla will “probably” manufacture 20 million vehicles a year before 2030, while the total EV market could be more than 30 million vehicles.

If those numbers are to be achieved by Tesla, it would mean a production rate 50 times greater than the 365,000 it manufactured in 2019.

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Tesla’s Fremont facility has a current production rate of about 500,000 vehicles per year. Giga Shanghai is expanding to 200,000 vehicles per year. When Giga Berlin comes online next year, it will eventually have a targeted production rate of 500,000 vehicles per year as well. There have been no indications yet on the production capacity of Giga Texas.

Taking just those 3 Gigafactories into account, it adds up to 1,200,000 vehicles per year. Either Tesla is going to have significantly increase production capacity at its existing facilities, or build a lot more Gigafactories around the world.

Or maybe even both?

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