With two new Gigafactories currently under construction, it looks like Tesla may need several more in the next decade after CEO Elon Musk’s comments on Monday.
Responding to several comments from ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, Musk said he believes Tesla will “probably” manufacture 20 million vehicles a year before 2030, while the total EV market could be more than 30 million vehicles.
That’s total market, not all Tesla. We do see Tesla reaching 20M vehicles/year probably before 2030, but that requires consistently excellent execution.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 28, 2020
If those numbers are to be achieved by Tesla, it would mean a production rate 50 times greater than the 365,000 it manufactured in 2019.
Tesla’s Fremont facility has a current production rate of about 500,000 vehicles per year. Giga Shanghai is expanding to 200,000 vehicles per year. When Giga Berlin comes online next year, it will eventually have a targeted production rate of 500,000 vehicles per year as well. There have been no indications yet on the production capacity of Giga Texas.
Taking just those 3 Gigafactories into account, it adds up to 1,200,000 vehicles per year. Either Tesla is going to have significantly increase production capacity at its existing facilities, or build a lot more Gigafactories around the world.
Or maybe even both?