Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for Tesla’s third quarter deliveries, citing weaker-than-expected sales in several of the automaker’s largest markets.
The investment bank now expects Tesla to deliver 435,000 vehicles globally during Q3, down from its previous estimate of 490,000. The revised figure is also well below the consensus estimate of approximately 456,000 vehicles.
If Goldman’s forecast proves accurate, Tesla deliveries would fall by roughly 9% compared to the second quarter. Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, including 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, rebounding significantly from 358,023 deliveries during the first three months of the year.
According to Goldman, recent sales figures from the U.S., China and Europe have been tracking below its previous expectations. Stronger demand in export markets, including Southeast Asia, South America and Australia, is expected to partly offset that weakness, with many of those vehicles being exported from Giga Shanghai.
Despite lowering its delivery estimate, Goldman has maintained its Neutral rating on Tesla and its $360 price target. Analyst Mark Delaney reiterated both earlier this week, while pointing to a few areas that could provide some upside to vehicle demand.
Among them is Full Self-Driving (FSD), which Delaney believes could help support demand. Goldman also sees the larger six-seat Model Y L as another potential contributor to improving sales over time. U.S. deliveries of the Model Y L are expected to begin later this month.
Goldman did not provide a Canada specific Q3 forecast. Tesla is expected to release its official third quarter production and delivery figures in early October.
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