Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas had put pen to paper and started to look at the actual valuation of Tesla’s Supercharger network in terms of the share price. Naturally, the valuation will depend on several factors, but Jonas has put together four cases with corresponding share impacts based explicitly on the Supercharger network.
The four cases take the percentage of US miles driven, Tesla’s market share of Supercharging, and Tesla’s NOPAT margin into consideration, per Seeking Alpha.
The reasonable case
If Tesla can achieve the following:
- 10 per cent EV miles penetration
- 50 per cent Tesla share of Supercharging
- 30 per cent of NOPAT margin
- The share price value would be around $3 per share.
The plausible case
Next, the plausible case would be:
- 20 per cent EV miles penetration
- 50 per cent Tesla share of Supercharging
- 30 per cent of NOPAT margin
- The share price value would be around $14 per share.
The dominant case
If Tesla is dominating the US EV space, it would be:
- 30 per cent EV miles penetration
- 80 per cent of Tesla’s share of Supercharging
- 70 per cent of NOPAT margin
- The share price value would be around $33 per share.
The monopoly case
Finally, if Tesla becomes a true monopoly in the EV space, it would look like
- 50 per cent EV miles penetration
- 100 per cent Tesla share of Supercharging
- 800 per cent of NOPAT margin
- The share price value would be around $78 per share.
The actual value of the Supercharger network is hard to put into numbers. But Jonas’s work has put some things into perspective, especially as the Supercharger network could be one of Tesla’s leading profit centres in only a few short years.
