Tesla Q4 2022 and full year earnings – what to expect

giga texas
Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | Twitter

After announcing a record year in terms of both production and deliveries earlier this month, Tesla is set to publish their financial results for the fourth quarter of 2022 and the full year after markets close on Wednesday, January 25 2023.

In the final quarter of the year Tesla produced over 439,000 vehicles at Fremont, Giga Texas, Giga Berlin, and Giga Shanghai, while delivering 405,278 of those to customers around the world. Despite growing vehicle deliveries by 40% year-over-year (YoY) to 1.313 million units, it was still viewed as a miss by analysts based on Tesla’s projected guidance of growing by 50% YoY.

Here is what analysts are expecting Tesla will announce the publication of tomorrow’s Q4 2022 and full year financial results.

Earnings

Wall Street consensus is that Tesla is expected to report earnings of around $1.13 per share. If accurate that would be a 35% increase year-over-year (YoY) from Q4 2021 when Tesla earned $0.85 per share.

Revenue

Tesla is expected to announce between $24 to $25 billion in revenue for Q4 2022. That is a 10% increase from Q3 2022 which saw $21.9 billion in revenue, and a 35% increase from their Q4 2021 revenue of $17.79 billion.

Other Announcements

Tesla always includes a number of other announcements in their shareholder deck and during the subsequent earnings call, and tomorrow’s should be no exception. If we don’t get it today as planned there should be more information on the new Semi factory in Nevada, as well as a possible announcement of a new facility in Mexico or Canada.

We should also expect to hear Tesla’s production guidance for 2023 and whether they are sticking with 50% sequential growth, or revising that target based on current economic conditions.

Investor and Institutional Questions

Thanks to questions submitted through Say, we will also get more news tomorrow on the 4680 production ramp, Cybertruck production, and more. Here are the top 7 questions from retail and institutional investors that will be asked during tomorrow’s call.

Some analysts are claiming that Tesla orders net of cancellations came in at a rate of less than half of production in the fourth quarter. This has raised demand concerns. Can you elaborate on order trends so far this year and how they compare to current production rates?

After recent price cuts, analysts released expectations that Tesla automotive gross margin excluding leases and reg credits will drop below 20% and average selling price around $47k across all models. Where do you see average selling price and gross margins after the price cuts?

What has the initial reaction been to global price reductions early in 1Q23, specifically in terms of order intake levels?

Will Tesla be able to take full advantage of advanced manufacturing production credits for battery cells/packs ($3,700 per LR 3/Y at $45/kWh for 82 kWh pack) for auto & energy products and how much does Tesla expect to earn in the coming year from these credits?

Please provide a detailed explanation of where you are on the 4680 ramp. What are the current road blocks? When do you expire t to scale to 10,000 vehicles a week?

Zach, when do you think Tesla Insurance will become a big enough revenue source to warrant providing more details on the financials of that business so investors can compare it to other insurance companies?

Is cybertruck production still on track for mid year?

About Darryn John 5553 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-chief of Drive Tesla Canada | Darryn@DriveTeslaCanada.ca Have a Tesla tip? Email tips@driveteslacanada.ca, or DM us on Twitter @DriveTeslaca