Tesla has shared an updated roadmap for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software development. Unlike the original FSD development roadmap released in early September, which included monthly milestones, this roadmap has no definitive dates, but rather outlines what’s coming next. It is also heavily focused on vehicles with the HW4/AI4 self-driving computer.
What Was Completed
In its update, Tesla highlighted its successes, noting that end-to-end on highway had been deployed to around 50,000 customers through FSD v12.5.6.1, but this version has only been released on HW4/AI4 vehicles. Tesla originally said end-to-end on highway would be released to everyone by the end of September.
The company also mentioned the Cybertruck receiving a “build that improves responsiveness,” and that they successfully transported over 2,000 people in 50 completely autonomous vehicles at the ‘We, Robot’ event.
What Was Not Completed & What’s Coming Next
In its original roadmap, Tesla said it planned to release unpark, park and reverse in FSD, as well as deploy FSD v13 with a 6X improvement in miles between necessary interventions. Unfortunately the company was not able to meet either of those targets, now saying FSD v13 will be released to internal testers by the end of this week.
As for when external customers can expect to receive it, Tesla said we’ll have to wait at least another month as they are targeting Thanksgiving (i.e., the end of November) for a wide release of FSD v13.3. Unfortunately, that will only be for HW4/AI4 vehicles, with no mention of when HW3/AI3 vehicles can expect this version.
So what can owners with HW3/AI3 expect in the foreseeable future? It appears that all you will get is “improved v12.5 models for AI3 city driving,” according to Tesla. Given the targeted late November release for HW4/AI4 v13.3, it would not be surprising to see HW3/AI3 stuck on v12.5 into the early part of 2025.
This is disappointing, but not all that surprising. CEO Elon Musk finally admitted on the Q3 2024 earnings call that there is a chance HW3/AI3 might not be capable of running unsupervised FSD. He also said that Tesla would take care of these customers and upgrade them to a new computer that would be capable if this were to happen.
The question now becomes when does Tesla acknowledge that HW3/AI3 cannot run unsupervised FSD and upgrade these owners? Before this update we would have said that could be years in the future, but with barely a mention of HW3/AI3 in this update, and its continued lack of progress, it is becoming apparent that this version of the self-driving computer is falling further and further behind HW4/AI4, and that Tesla should pull the plug sooner rather than later and move on from HW3/AI3.
The FSD roadmap also includes a plan to launch “Actually Smart Summon” outside of North America in regions like Europe and China, but with no definitive timeline. Originally Tesla it hoped to expand FSD to Europe and China in the first quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approval, but there was no update on this aspect of the FSD roadmap today.
Here are some of the improvements HW4/AI4 owners can expect in FSD v13.3.
- 36 Hz, full-resolution AI4 video inputs
- Native AI4 inputs and neural network architectures
- 3x model size scaling – 3x model context length scaling
- 4.2x data scaling
- 5x training compute scaling (enabled by the Cortex training cluster)
- Much improved reward predictions for collision avoidance, following traffic controls, navigation, etc.
- Efficient representation of maps and navigation inputs
- Audio inputs for better handling of emergency vehicles
- Redesigned controller for smoother, more accurate tracking
- Integrated unpark, reverse, and park capabilities
- Support for destination options including pulling over, parking in a spot, driveway, or garage
- Improved camera cleaning and handling of camera occlusions
And here is the full update roadmap from Tesla.
As October comes to a close, here's an update on the releases
— Tesla AI (@Tesla_AI) October 31, 2024
What we completed:
– End-to-end on highway has shipped to ~50k customers with v12.5.6.1
– Cybertruck build that improves responsiveness
– Successful We, Robot event with 50 autonomous Teslas safely transporting over… https://t.co/2xKiAjrk5R
