Tesla sales in China will hit zero within 10 years: Adam Jonas

Tesla China

If you’re to believe one Wall Street analyst, Tesla will have no sales within 10 years in the biggest electric vehicle (EV) market in the world.

That’s the view according to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who this week told Yahoo Finance’s “On the Move” sales would peak within five years before dropping to zero by 2030.

“We have China sales peaking [in the] middle of the decade and then going down…and then eventually nothing after 2030,” said Jonas.

China, with a population of nearly 1.4 billion people, is seen as the biggest EV market in the world. Tesla recently opened their first foreign manufacturing facility in Shanghai, and has already ramped up production to 200,000 vehicles per year.

The automaker plans to add to that with the addition of the Model Y production line. The electric SUV is expected to launch in China early next year.

With all that, Tesla has been able to double their H1 2020 sales in China, and currently commands an EV market share of more than 20%.

That all sounds very optimistic that Tesla should have a bright future in the country, but Jonas believes the ongoing trade war and data privacy concerns will mean the eventual collapse of sales.

“Can you imagine a Chinese internet of cars autonomous network operating in the streets of Boston in 10 years? Of course not. Wake up. It’s not happening. And so this idea that the Chinese aren’t allowed to use AI network machine learning data privacy networks from the state, but it’s okay for us to do [it] there, is just a fallacy in our opinion,” Jonas added.

What do you think? Do you agree with Jonas that Tesla has no future in China? Let us know in the comments below.

Legal Disclaimer – Darryn holds shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and has no plans to change any positions within 72 hours.

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Founder and Editor-in-chief of Drive Tesla Canada | Darryn@DriveTeslaCanada.ca Have a Tesla tip? Email tips@driveteslacanada.ca, or DM us on Twitter @DriveTeslaca