Tesla (TSLA) will release its second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, July 23, and with deliveries and revenue trending lower, the spotlight will likely shift from Tesla’s near-term financial performance to its long-term autonomous driving strategy and robotaxi ambitions.
Revenue and Earnings Expectations
Analysts project Tesla’s Q2 revenue to land between $22.1 billion and $22.9 billion, representing a decline of about 12–13% compared to last year’s $25 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) are forecast to fall between $0.39 and $0.44, down nearly 25% year-over-year.
Deliveries, which Tesla reported earlier this month, totaled 384,122 vehicles, marking a 13.5% drop from the same quarter in the previous year—the automaker’s steepest quarterly decline on record.
Profit margins are also under pressure, with Wall Street expecting them to fall below 17%, down significantly from Tesla’s peak levels during the pandemic. Price cuts, the elimination of U.S. federal EV credits under President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” and increasing competition from Chinese and European automakers have all weighed heavily on Tesla’s profitability.
Robotaxi Comes Into Focus
While Q2 financials are expected to trend weaker, Tesla’s narrative around autonomy continues to capture investor attention. The company recently launched a robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, using Model Ys with safety operators. Analysts anticipate that CEO Elon Musk will emphasize Tesla’s autonomous driving roadmap, including updates on fleet growth targets and possibly new markets for robotaxi expansion.
Product Updates
Investors are also waiting for updates on Tesla’s long-promised low-cost EVs. These vehicles were supposed to be released in June, but now well into July and there have been no updates from the company on the current status, although there have been reports of potential delays into late 2025.
Say Questions
As always, Tesla will be holding a live Q&A sessions following the release of the company’s financials. Investors and analysts have been submitting questions through the Say platform, and based on the current number of upvotes, here are the top 10 questions that will likely be asked during the call.
- Can you give us some insight how robotaxis have been performing so far and what rate you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities, and supervisors?
- What are the key technical and regulatory hurdles still remaining for unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use? Timeline?
- What specific factory tasks is Optimus currently performing, and what is the expected timeline for scaling production to enable external sales? How does Tesla envision Optimus contributing to revenue in the next 2–3 years?
- Can you provide an update on the development and production timeline for Tesla’s more affordable models? How will these models balance cost reduction with profitability, and what impact do you expect on demand in the current economic climate?
- When do you anticipate customer vehicles to receive unsupervised FSD?
- Are there any news for HW3 users getting retrofits or upgrades? Will they get HW4 or some future version of HW5?
- Have any meaningful Optimus milestones changed for this year or next and will thousands of Optimus be performing tasks in Tesla factories by year end?
- How will BBB elimination of tax credits for solar projects affect your sales pipeline for Megapacks?
- Will there be a new AI day to explain the advancements the Autopilot, Optimus, and Dojo/chip teams have made over the past several years. We still do not know much about the HW4.
- Cybertruck ramp is now a year in but sales have lagged other models. How are you thinking through boosting sales of such an incredible product?
