Tesla has released its latest company-compiled analyst consensus for Q1 2026, offering an early look at Wall Street expectations ahead of its official delivery and production report—and the numbers point to a notable quarter-over-quarter decline.
According to the consensus, analysts expect Tesla to deliver 365,645 vehicles in Q1 2026, down from the company’s 418,227 deliveries in Q4 2025. As is typical for the first quarter, the projected drop aligns with Tesla’s historical seasonality, where production transitions, logistics, and demand patterns often result in softer delivery figures following a year-end push.
The bulk of those deliveries are expected to come from Tesla’s core lineup. Analysts forecast 351,179 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries. Meanwhile, 13,946 units are expected from Tesla’s other models, including the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck—a modest increase compared to Q4 levels, suggesting some incremental growth in Tesla’s premium and newer vehicle segments ahead of the end of Model S/X production during Q2.
Beyond vehicles, Tesla’s energy business continues to show strength. Analysts expect the company to deploy 14.4 GWh of energy storage in Q1 2026, a slight increase from the 14.2 GWh deployed in Q4 2025.
The release also includes longer-term projections, with analysts forecasting 1.69 million total vehicle deliveries in 2026, a modest increase from the 1.63 million vehicles delivered in 2025, climbing steadily to over 3.0 million annually by 2030.
Energy storage is expected to grow even faster, reaching 65.2 GWh in 2026 and expanding significantly in the years that follow, underscoring Tesla’s increasingly important role in grid-scale energy solutions.
This marks just the second time Tesla has publicly shared its company-compiled consensus on its Investor Relations website, a move that began late last year. Previously, this data was largely confined to institutional investors and select analysts, often trickling into the public domain through fragmented reports.
By publishing the consensus directly, Tesla is helping level the playing field between retail and institutional investors. The inclusion of additional context—such as medians, standard deviations, and the number of contributing estimates—provides a clearer picture not just of expectations, but also of how confident analysts are in those projections.
