Tesla is expected to release their Q1 2025 production and delivery report tomorrow, and the typical expectations of growth have shifted as the company could report its weakest quarter in years.
According to Tesla’s company-compiled consensus released over the weekend, analysts are now forecasting the automaker will deliver 377,592 vehicles in the first three months of 2025. This would be a modest 2.3% drop from the 386,810 vehicles the company delivered in the first quarter of 2024, but a more significant 24% drop from the 495,570 cars it delivered in Q4 2024.
The consensus breaks down into 351,893 deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y, while Tesla’s “other” models, which covers the Model S, Model X, Cybertruck, account for 21,241 units.
This company-compiled estimate, sourced from 27 major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, reflects growing caution from analysts as Tesla faces a combination of operational challenges and external pressures.
here you go guys, enjoy $tsla delivery consensus pic.twitter.com/oLFAm12WBk
— lord pretty flacko ⚔️ (@smdcapital1010) March 28, 2025
Interestingly, independent data providers such as FactSet still suggest a more optimistic scenario, with their consensus standing at 408,000 deliveries, representing a 5% increase from Q1 2024. However, most recent analyst revisions are trending closer to the lower end, with some firms forecasting figures as low as 345,000. Tesla-focused trackers like Troy Teslike expect around 355,000 deliveries.
One of the reasons for the potential decline is the rollout of the new Model Y, which has caused production and delivery slowdowns as factories retool production lines and inventory management adjusts.
Tesla is also contending with a decline in its brand appeal, particularly in Europe and parts of North America, where CEO Elon Musk’s high-profile political activities have triggered backlash. In European markets such as Germany and France, Tesla registrations have dropped by as much as 70% year-over-year.
However, in China, Tesla saw a rise in sales as the quarter progressed, with the company seeing the fourth highest number of insurance registration in the final week of March, fueled by the introduction of the new Model Y.
With the modest outlook for Q1, the company’s full-year delivery consensus has now been adjusted to 1.85 million vehicles, down from earlier estimates above 2 million units.
Tesla’s Q1 results are expected to be announced after markets close on April 2.
