Tesla is set to report its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, and expectations heading into the call are mixed as the company navigates softer automotive performance alongside rapid growth in energy and AI-driven initiatives.
According to Wall Street analyst consensus estimates, Tesla is expected to post non-GAAP earnings of about $0.45 per share for Q4 2025, down sharply from $0.73 in the same quarter last year. Revenue is also projected to slip, coming in around $24.8 billion compared to $25.7 billion a year earlier.
The anticipated decline follows weaker than expected vehicle deliveries reported earlier this month, combined with continued price cuts that have weighed on margins.
Automotive gross margin will be a key metric to watch, particularly excluding regulatory credits, as Tesla has leaned heavily on pricing incentives to stimulate demand in an increasingly competitive global EV market. Analysts expect margins to remain under pressure, especially with automotive sales still accounting for roughly three-quarters of total revenue.
At the same time, Tesla’s spending is moving in the opposite direction. Capital expenditures are forecast to approach $3 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion last year, with management previously warning that capex will “increase substantially in 2026.”
Tesla Q4 2025 Earnings Expectations (Consensus Estimates)
| Metric | Q4 2025 Estimate | Q4 2024 Actual | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share (Non-GAAP) | $0.45 | $0.73 | ▼ 38% |
| Revenue | $24.8B | $25.7B | ▼ ~3.5% |
| Capital Expenditures | ~$3.0B | $2.8B | ▲ ~7% |
| Automotive Gross Margin | Declining | Higher | ▼ (price pressure) |
Investors will be listening closely for updates on timelines. On the earnings call, attention is expected to focus on progress toward unsupervised Full Self-Driving, the removal of safety drivers from robotaxis, Cybercab production targets, and Tesla’s in-house AI hardware roadmap.
Despite the automotive slowdown, Tesla’s Energy business continues to be a bright spot. In Q3 2025, energy and services revenue grew 44% and 25% year over year, respectively, and the company went on to deploy a record 14.2 GWh of energy storage in Q4. Analysts expect the energy segment to deliver some of Tesla’s strongest margins, helping offset weakness elsewhere in the business.
