Tesla is on track for a record-breaking quarter, with analysts forecasting significant delivery numbers for Q4 2024. According to Tesla’s company-compiled consensus shared by head of investor relations Travis Axelrod, analysts expect the automaker to deliver 506,763 vehicles in the fourth quarter.
While this figure represents strong performance, it falls slightly short of the 515,000 deliveries required to match Tesla’s total from 2023. If the estimates prove accurate, Tesla will close out 2024 with a total of 1,801,709 vehicle deliveries globally, just under the 1,808,581 vehicles delivered in 2023.
To surpass its 2023 numbers, Tesla would need to achieve a record-breaking quarter by delivering approximately 515,000 vehicles in Q4. This would be the highest delivery figure Tesla has ever recorded in a single quarter. Interestingly, betting markets and independent analysts are even more bullish, with some forecasting deliveries as high as 552,000 for Q4.
While not as high as that, Wall Street expectations for Tesla’s Q4 deliveries are slightly higher than the company-compiled consensus, with estimates ranging between 500,000 and 510,000 vehicles. UBS, for example, predicts Tesla will deliver 510,000 vehicles, emphasizing that investor sentiment is increasingly influenced by Tesla’s developments in artificial intelligence and FSD rather than delivery figures alone.
Tesla’s production numbers for the first three quarters of 2024 provide insight into the company’s trajectory. In Q1, Tesla produced 433,371 vehicles but delivered only 386,810 units, indicating potential logistical challenges. However, Q2 saw a reversal, with 443,956 deliveries surpassing production of 410,831 vehicles. By Q3, production increased to approximately 470,000 vehicles, with deliveries closely following at 463,000.
This relationship between production and deliveries suggests that Tesla’s ability to meet or exceed Q4 expectations will hinge on its efficiency in scaling production and managing supply chain complexities. If Tesla can overcome these hurdles, the company may indeed deliver a surprise to Wall Street and set a new delivery record.
