In a significant update for Tesla owners, CEO Elon Musk has confirmed that the company will upgrade HW3/AI3 self-driving computers for customers who have purchased Full Self-Driving (FSD) package.
In the Q3 2024 earnings call, Musk made his first comments about HW3 upgrades, saying upgrades would be offered, but only if it was found the HW3 was not capable of running FSD Unsupervised.
Just three months later, Musk removed that qualifier, saying during today’s Q4 and 2024 earnings call that all cars with HW3 will be upgraded to new self-driving computers. However, while one qualifier was removed, another was added, and that is the upgrade offer will only be available to those who have purchased FSD, and not those who subscribe.
“The honest answer, is that we’re gonna have to upgrade people’s HW3 computer for those that have bought FSD. It’s gonna be painful and difficult, but we’ll get it done. Now I’m kinda glad that not many people bought the FSD package.”
Why the HW3 Upgrade Matters
Tesla’s FSD system relies heavily on the car’s onboard computing hardware to process real-time data from cameras and sensors. HW3, first introduced in 2019, was a significant step forward from earlier versions, featuring Tesla’s custom AI chips designed for neural network processing.
However, with Tesla now deploying its more advanced HW4 hardware in new vehicles, concerns have grown about whether older FSD-equipped cars can keep up with the latest software developments, especially as the releases on HW3 have started to lag significantly behind those for HW4.
What Will Be Installed?
We know that the different form factor of the HW4 computer compared to HW3, along with the different wiring harness, means the computer can not simply be swapped out. This points to one possibility in that Tesla could develop the existing HW4 into the same form factor as HW3, and design it to use the same wiring harness.
However, the more likely scenario is that Tesla will develop a hybrid HW3/HW4 computer – one that has more processing power than HW3, but is not exactly the same as HW4 and can fit in and accept the wiring harness of a HW3 vehicle.
There is also the matter of the on-board cameras, which have also been updated with HW4. However, Musk has previously said cameras won’t need to be replaced as they are “capable.”
When Will Upgrades Begin?
While the upgrade is great news for Tesla owners, retrofitting vehicles with new hardware is a complex and costly process. For the customer, the biggest pain point will likely be scheduling service appointments, as many Service Centers are already strained, and adding retrofit requests will only add to the service burden.
What If I Subscribe to FSD?
Musk was specific in his comments saying the upgrade will only be available for those who purchased the FSD package, which at its highest cost C$19,500/US$15,000. This does not necessarily mean that it will never be available for those who pay $99 per month to subscribe to FSD.
Rather, Tesla will likely limit the upgrade program at first to ensure availability to owners who purchased FSD, and then make it available later to subscribers. If and when that happens, it won’t be free, and will likely cost between $2-3,000 to upgrade, based on historical computer upgrade pricing.
